As part of moving to online instruction, i decided my programming class might like to simulate COVID. Of course, everyone and their sibling is doing this, but it is instructive to see how a model is built. I chose a model that is moderately correct (aside from being continuous and non-spatial). It has Susceptible, Exposed, Carrier, Infected, and Resolved as states. After putting in realistic parameters, with a little adjustment, the results strongly suggest that social distancing is the critical parameter to shut down the disease.
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